Copper prices after the festival is expected to move up the center of gravity-www.yyy13.com

The festival is expected to focus on copper up hot column capital flows thousands of thousands of stocks the latest Rating Rating diagnosis simulated trading client since November 24th last year, copper has 10 consecutive weeks to maintain low order, and nearly two weeks showed a trend of stronger oscillations, initially stabilized at above average on the head, many have the upper hand. And since the end of this year’s Spring Festival copper terminal consumption enterprises slightly stronger than expected, and copper enterprises to reduce production restrictions brought about by short-term supply pressure to improve, it is expected that copper prices will further stabilize later, radical can light warehouse hold more than one festival. The non-ferrous metals industry will stabilize in the weak, after copper prices gradually digest a series of economic indicators announced earlier, the current market focused on January announced China’s new wealth and the official manufacturing PMI. According to Reuters of 20 analysts forecast a comprehensive analysis, is expected to China January official manufacturing PMI compared with 49.7 in December last year fell slightly to 49.6, for sixth consecutive months in the 50 ups and downs of the line, but if taking into account the seasonal factors of the Spring Festival, January manufacturing PMI performance is acceptable. In addition, from the basic point of non-ferrous metals industry, in December 2015, the non-ferrous metals industry boom index edged up to 11.3, although still in the "cold" region, but broke the record low of 11.1 in November. At the same time, the non-ferrous metals industry in the leading index was 72.7, the chain rebounded 1.1 points, for a period of three months. Accordingly, the non-ferrous metal industry in the short term is expected to stabilize in the weak. The downstream consumer is stronger than expected as the Spring Festival holiday, the enterprise of copper industry chain have been opened holiday mode, the market is also more expected copper prices to supply two light, but the SMM survey data show that this year the copper terminal enterprises generally late holiday time than in previous years, suggesting that the downstream consumer is stronger than expected. The copper, copper tube plant and wire and cable factory are relatively late because of the abundant orders and the peak production season. The reason is related to the increase of investment in the domestic power grid construction in the fourth quarter of last month. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the total investment of domestic power grid construction was 189 billion 200 million yuan, and the quarterly chain increased by 76%, so that the investment of China’s power grid construction completed from 1 to December was 460 billion 299 million yuan, basically completed the planned investment at the beginning of the year. In terms of import demand, China imported 423181 tons of refined copper in December last year, an increase of 34.35% compared with the previous year. The monthly import volume has set a record high, breaking the record of 406937 tons in December 2011, and increasing imports of investors and traders due to the downturn in copper prices and the demand for pre supply. At the same time, 2015 copper imports a record low in 2003 to the 3 million 162 thousand tons, showing that the domestic copper supply situation was not improved, which will increase the refined copper demand. Or technical recovery trend in December 2015, China’s refined copper production was 700 thousand tons, a decrease of about 40 thousand tons, showing low copper prices have reduced the enthusiasm of copper enterprises. In December last year, the domestic copper smelting backbone enterprises also announced a joint production reduction statement, that is, in 2016 will reduce the production of refined copper at least 3

铜价 节后重心有望上移 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端   自去年11月24日以来,期铜已连续10周维持低位整理,且近两周呈振荡偏强走势,初步企稳于日均线之上,多头暂居上风。而由于今年春节前铜终端消费企业表现略强于预期,且铜企减产限售带来的短期供应压力改善,预计后期铜价将进一步企稳,激进者可轻仓持多单过节。   有色金属产业将弱中企稳   在铜价逐步消化了此前公布的一系列经济指标之后,目前市场聚焦于周一公布的1月中国财新和官方制造业PMI。其中根据路透对20家分析机构的预估中值进行综合分析,预计中国1月官方制造业PMI料较去年12月的49.7微跌至49.6,为连续第6个月处于50荣枯线之下,但若考虑到春节的季节性因素,1月制造业PMI的表现尚可。   此外,从有色金属产业的基本面来看,2015年12月,中经有色金属产业景气指数微升至11.3,虽依然处于“过冷”区域,但脱离了11月创下的纪录低点11.1。   同时,中经有色金属产业先行指数为72.7,环比回升1.1点,为连涨三个月。据此推测,短期内有色金属产业也有望弱中企稳。   下游消费稍强于预期   随着春节假期临近,铜产业链各企业虽已陆续开启放假模式,市场也多预期铜企供需两淡,但SMM调研数据显示,今年铜终端企业放假时间普遍较往年偏晚,暗示下游消费稍强于预期。其中铜材、铜管厂及电线电缆厂因为订单充足,且适逢生产旺季,放假时间相对较晚。究其原因,跟国内电网工程建设在去年四季度逐月加大投资有关。2015年四季度国内电网工程建设累计投资1892亿元,季度环比剧增76%,从而使得1—12月我国电网工程建设完成投资为4602.99亿元,基本完成年初的计划投资。进口需求方面,我国去年12月进口精炼铜423181吨,同比增加34.35%,单月进口量创下纪录新高,打破2011年12月创下的纪录406937吨,因铜价低迷及节前补库需求刺激投资者和贸易商增加进口。同时,2015废铜进口量创下2003年来的新低316.2万吨,显示出国内废铜供应偏紧的局面无明显改善,这将增加部分精铜需求。   或出现技术性修复走势   2015年12月我国精铜产量为70万吨,环比减少约4万吨,显示出铜价低迷已降低了铜企的生产积极性。去年12月国内铜冶炼骨干企业也宣布了联合减产声明,即2016年将减少精铜产量至少35万吨。此外,今年1月铜冶炼企业短单TC RC费亦降至115美元 吨,使得精铜产量有望进一步下滑。同时,1月我国铜冶炼厂商也进一步推出“限售保价”措施,即主要铜价低于4万元 吨之下,则铜冶炼厂商将削减现货铜销售量20万吨,短期可向市场传达出供应端压力下滑的信号。国家层面也不断强调要加大有色金属产业的供给侧改革,从钢材、煤炭1月走势也可以看出,这种政策的执行所带来的市场情绪转变不容小觑。   截至1月26日,美铜CFTC总持仓较去年12月末剧增35211至202900手,该持仓量创下纪录新高,显示出铜价处于低位振荡整理之际,多空分歧不断加大。而从最新一周的持仓变化来看,CFTC投机空头减仓10322手,远超过多头所减少的3743手,从而使得投机净空头寸降至36827手,为连续第35周维持净空头寸。在投机基金持续抛空后,空头已获利颇丰,需关注后期空头逢低获利所带来的技术反弹。   综上所述,短期内铜市供需矛盾有所缓和,在此背景下,建议沪铜主力合约可背靠34500元 吨之上持多单过节。 (作者单位:瑞达期货) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: